Immigration

Immigration

This episode covers immigration, Social Security, income taxes, and workers' compensation/protection insurance. The reason we are tackling four at once is that they are all connected and can all be improved by changing a couple of things. By improved, I mean that Immigration can be conducted humanely and be beneficial to the US and immigrants, and that Social Security insurance can be bolstered so that the fund is solvent and growing each year, rather than going into the red. Income taxes can be reduced for lower-income households while still increasing the federal reserve's revenue. Workers’ compensation, unemployment, and disability insurance can all cover everyone, and all three can do so at a lower cost per person.

Let's start with some background and facts about immigration. We are a country of immigrants; about 10 percent of our population has always been immigrants. That holds true to today. My ancestors weren’t from here, and neither were yours. Even indigenous people are immigrants; they have been here for thousands of years, though. Immigration is part of how the US grew and became one of the wealthiest countries in the world. New blood, new ideas, new helping hands. Unfortunately, there has always been a group of people who have resisted new immigrants, just as there is today. There was an exception to the resistance, the indigenous people who helped the immigrants at Plymouth Rock (there were probably some who thought it was a bad idea).  There were also times when immigration was forced upon people.

The US population is shrinking; it is expected to decline by 23 million by 2055. That is a reduction of over 7 percent of the current population. One consequence of this trend is a decline in the number of individuals supporting the elderly and contributing to Social Security, placing greater responsibility on a shrinking population.  A population reduction also causes stagnation in the GDP. Population decline generally also leads to labor shortages.

The Social Security Fund is also shrinking and will not be able to keep its commitment in 2033. That’s right, Social Security will be underfunded by 2033. It’s not as bad as it seems: currently, 95% of incoming funds are spent, and only 5% come from the fund.  So, we just need to find the 5%, which will grow larger if we don’t act now. 5% of Social Security equals roughly $80 billion.  The money to fund this can be obtained from several sources, including immigrants, who help to pay for it. The cost of ICE and border patrol will go down if we handle immigration properly so some of that money can be funneled into the pool. The reduction in the cost of lawsuits for unlawful acts committed by the government can also be put to better use by helping us rather than defending us for harming others. So, we can find the money; it's just that no administration has been looking hard enough or giving out tax breaks like candy. Oh, wait, it`s better than candy.  Some administrations have been wasting more than 80 billion, exacerbating problems rather than solving the actual ones at home or trying to make other countries democratic, whether they want it or not.

The Social Security card is extremely easy to counterfeit; I couldn’t find an exact number of instances, but there are allegations of over 25% of fraudulent use. Twenty-five percent, which creates a host of other issues, such as financial loss, Identity theft, and allowing undocumented persons to work under them, to name a few. The social security card does not have a computer chip to prevent fraudulent use.

 Workers’ Compensation is more costly when Employers are not insured or underreport wages. People who work under the table don’t pay taxes, Social Security, Medicare, or unemployment insurance. So, some employers don’t pay workers' compensation insurance for many of their workers. Then, if one gets injured, the employer says he just started this week, and the guy is covered, and the employer paid almost nothing for the coverage. Another thing that happens is the injured worker can go to a hospital and say he was off the job, and the government helps reimburse the hospital for the expenses. So, workers’ compensation insurance is a lot higher than it would be if there were proper reporting. We also pay more in taxes because the government must reimburse the hospital instead of the employer, who should have had insurance.

As for social security payments, if the number of people working under the table is just 15 million, which is a number that is batted around a lot (my guess is it is over 50 million) and the employees make 15 dollars per hour and works 40 hours a week, that comes to over a billion dollars that the social security is not getting. If I am right and the number is closer to 50 million undocumented workers, then the amount is 3.6 billion. Those numbers are based on 15 per hour, but many of the workers make 3 to 10 times that amount. So we could be talking about 10 to 50 billion or more. That is just Social Security; there’s also unemployment, Medicare, and income taxes. I hope I didn’t scare anybody, and they thought I was introducing a math question at the beginning of the paragraph.

As an illustration of how this works and how unfair it is to the rest of us, let me tell you a story. I know a guy who was an undocumented worker but had a US citizen wife. The guy got paid over 85k under the table, worked weekends, making around 30 to 40k more per year. Then his wife worked under the table cleaning houses, making 150 to 200 per day, so she was making over 40k per year. That’s over 150 thousand dollars a year. But on top of that, the wife was also receiving SNAP and Section 8 housing. Neither of them contributed to any programs; they just took from them. The takeaway should not be about the harm these people did, but the system that let them get away with it for years. There are at least 12 million undocumented workers getting paid under the table, and the number of documented, i.e., American citizens, working under the table is at least that many. I think that number is way higher for both groups because I run a company, and more than half of the people who apply for work want to be paid under the table. I also know several other business owners who look at me cross-eyed when I mention paying people under the table.  I am not the only person noticing this Fact, forty-nine states feel that companies are underreporting so much that they mandate workers' compensation insurance for contractors because the employers wouldn’t get it on their own

One proposal to stop undocumented immigration was building a tall wall. First, a wall will always be breachable unless it is over 150’ tall and a thousand feet deep. Thousands of people still get over the wall every month, that’s the new 30-foot-tall wall. It has not slowed the entry of undocumented persons. But it has contributed to disabling injuries and deaths. This, of course, has increased the cost of providing care for the injured. People have died crossing it, which is, in itself, unconscionable, especially when some are pregnant mothers who also lose the child, but there are also lawsuits from the families of the dead. Unfortunately, hundreds of people also get hurt while going over the wall, and most of the injuries are critical. The latest numbers I could find were in San Diego County, where over 400 people a year fell off the wall and received critical injuries. They had to be rushed to the emergency. The average cost of surgery alone was over 400k each. 400k each. That is to do the initial surgeries. Then we take care of them for as long as it takes to get them well, and you know a lawyer is waiting, seeking them out in the hospital. So, the cost is 10s of billions in just San Diego County.

I used San Diego County because the information for other areas is very spotty. It`s probably 100s of billions of dollars a year. This happened because we built it higher.  While writing this, I can’t help but wonder why anyone in charge has not investigated a net, not just to reduce costs, but then there’s the humanitarian issue. Or Is the net in the same box waiting to be opened as non-forgeable social cards? The wall costs over 11 billion, is costing hundreds of millions to maintain and cover medical and litigation costs each year, and doesn’t do the job it was intended to do. The leaders we have didn’t think the issue through or use the laws we already have in place.

Another interesting fact is that Biden and Obama deported more immigrants than Trump, that’s per year in office. That is right, more deportations every year. They did it quietly and did mostly to people who had committed crimes. They also did it for less money. The Obama administration spent about 8 billion a year and deported an average of 750 thousand a year. Trump's first term spent about 30 billion a year and deported an average of 500 thousand a year. Biden spent about 12 billion a year and deported an average of 800 thousand a year. Now, Trump is spending about 75 billion and has deported about 600 thousand people. On top of the deportations, there were about 1.4 million self-deportations because of his draconian tactics, but the self-deportations are mostly a one-time event; the number of persons who were scared out of the country is going to drop dramatically, even with the killing of people.

Another point is the brutality of Trump's deportations; aside from being wrong, it will bring a higher number of lawsuits. Look at all the billions that were spent. Obama: $64 billion; Trump 1: $120 billion; Biden: $48 billion; Trump 2: over $ 200 billion. That’s 432 billion dollars—$ 432 billion spent on deporting people in 20 years. There was nothing to stop them from coming back or others taking their place. It really doesn’t sound like a great investment! Especially when we are not addressing the issue

The reason the vast majority of people are coming here is to work and for better pay, and these undocumented persons are finding work. Many of them travel over 1000 miles on foot to get here, and they’re not going to do that if there is no work for them. I am sure the migrants who are here communicate with their families back home and say, "Yeah, I found a job, and I am getting great money." So many of the people they communicate with say they are going there too.  If nobody gave them work, they wouldn’t come. There was emigration during the 1930s and during recessions due to a lack of work.

Another fact is that they commit far fewer crimes than the average American. It is about half the rate of Americans. Yes, that’s not good that they commit crimes, but statistics show that as the immigrant population grows, the crime rate falls in the areas they move to. If we had control over who we let in, we could probably lower crime rates even further. Yes, there was the Medicare incident, but the federal government was warned by the state of Minnesota about fraud back in 2020. I am not saying it is right, but the government needs to be more diligent. Were your forefathers criminals? Was your great-grandma a murderer? Come on, this B. S. about them all being criminals, it is offensive. I admit that there are some that are bad. But if we have a way to control their inflow and outflow, it will be easier to act appropriately and vet them.

Another point is that very few undocumented persons get federal aid. Once again, several misconceptions are being spread. Almost all aid that is given is in the form of emergency medical care to mothers who are pregnant or with children up to 6 years old.

To come up with solutions, you need to look at the proximate causes of most immigration. Companies hiring undocumented workers is the main cause. They wouldn’t come here if there were no jobs! There are several other issues that bring immigrants here, Climate change, turmoil at home and hope for a better life. But the biggest draw is jobs.

Here is my proposal, it hits the main issue and is a win-win on several other issues.

The SS card should be upgraded to the twenty-first century.  It should be one of the most sophisticated chip cards around and virtually unforgeable. Then, once we have a card that is protected and not easily forged, we can issue an app and/or card readers to all Americans and businesses that need them. The collection devices (app card readers) will give almost Instantaneous information to the treasury and other reporting agencies. This helps businesses, the treasury, and individuals plan and respond to current economic conditions, access funds more quickly, and budget. Everyone can pay taxes easily, making it harder for people to misreport income. Someone pays a pool guy, the gardener, a laborer, scan the card, and the taxes are automatically taken out, social security, Medicare, and if applicable, unemployment and workers' compensation. All in an instant, with the swipe of a card. Employers will also use the system. Once the Treasury Department has this information, the feds could send you a 1040 at the end of the year so you can adjust or approve your return. Way easier and quicker than the current tax filing system. The proposed system adds to the Social Security fund and the national income. The proposed system will save the average person weeks of stress, not forcing them to go back and forth on their computer trying to figure out where each piece of information goes. It will also increase the amount of money collected by the treasury, in two ways, one the total will be more and two it will get the money far faster than it is now, which will decrease our national debt.

As for immigrants, we allow those already here to register. I suggest we do it on a phased basis, using the first letter of their last name, and give them a window of time to show up. There will be a grace period where employers and employees have time to register. This will take time; there are millions of immigrants and millions of people working under the table, which is why I propose a phased approach. Hopefully, it can be done in a year. Another thing I would like to see with immigrants is that the employers' portion of their social security tax be used to strengthen the US, rather than being credited to the immigrants' account; that’s the employer's contribution, and other employer-paid taxes go to the appropriate funds. The amount normally paid to the immigrant will be a tithe for being allowed into the US. These funds will bolster the budget and begin reversing the borrowing by past congresses and presidents. The amount of social security tax paid by the immigrant will go into a fund for the immigrants. It will be paid to them if they are asked to leave or go into the social security account, if they are allowed to become a citizen.  These monies will be paid out once they are off American soil. This tithing won't be forever; if the documented immigrants are allowed to become citizens, they will be treated like the rest of our citizens. Tithing will be on social security only; unemployment insurance and other taxes will be paid into the proper funds, which bolster them.  We can also improve the vetting of immigrants by having them checked by the proper authorities.

Part of the admission process will include immigrants signing a contract agreeing to leave if they can’t find work; they can stay as long as they are receiving unemployment insurance, which they paid into, but after that, they will need to leave. The contract will spell out that they can’t commit crimes and other things we would like from our citizens. We could also include putting a chip in them, if we determine that it is not too invasive. We could develop ways to identify who is more productive and less likely to commit crimes. There must be some type of test we can work out over time. We should also do aptitude tests and direct them at jobs they are likely to do well. If the jobs involve training, we could include employer-funded training after work.

There will be safeguards for reasons for deportation. We need to try to make sure we don’t let in people whose children destroy our country and values. (We probably want to do more vetting on people from Scotland and Germany, (that’s a poke at Trump, not anyone else). Economic needs can control the flow of immigrants, and some may be asked to leave if the economy goes south and there is a shortage of jobs for them. Once again, they will have time to find a new job and be given unemployment insurance, which they paid into. We also make it so people can sign up on the other side of the border, so they know that if they come without permission, they will not be allowed admittance unless they go through proper channels. We could also have an additional database of jobs so we can let them know whether there are jobs or no vacancies, and they can apply for entry-level jobs and a job at the same time.

There will also be a clause requiring that a job be advertised to the public, and Americans will be given the first shot. People who wanted the job but were denied it can file a petition if they feel they were not given a fair shot at the position. The petition system will have to be limited to prevent overload or abuse. But employers will need a way to avoid hiring employees who are not productive or do not fit. These are details that will need to be addressed. I can even see paying immigrants a little less than the minimum wage after wages are brought above a living wage.

Let’s not forget the other benefits of this plan. We don’t have to be a-holes to people who just want a job, just like your grandmother and your grandfather. It will lower the cost of several insurance plans, as it will be hard to lie about your employees, and the number of insured will rise.  The way this works, especially with workers’ compensation insurance, is that more workers are reported, and the amount collected per worker goes down. The number of workers who are not reported right now is in the tens of millions, which amounts to billions of dollars going into workers' comp and other workers' protection funds. Right now, some employers only report employees after they are hurt, which is crippling these funds. It will also help social security, Medicare, Medicaid, the Affordable Care Act, education, and make the census easier. I am confident we will see significant benefits. We will stop throwing billions away chasing people and imposing fines (which could be in the billions) on those who break the law, which will pay for enforcement. Once again, the biggest benefit is it will add Billions to the Social Security fund.

Another benefit is that it will reduce enforcement at the border. I am certain that the immigrants mention how easy it is to get a job to the people back home, when they send a check for hundreds of dollars, the immigrants send to help their relatives back home, and the people in other countries who see this are drawn here. The amount sent to Latin America was 161 billion dollars in one year, that number is the amount sent by wire transfer, there must be a huge amount sent by mail also. But instead, if the immigrants tell their friends and relatives, there are no more jobs, and the US is not accepting new immigrants, it will have virtually the same effect as the draconian treatment they are receiving without any cost to the taxpayers and no lawsuits.

Now how are we going to make sure people adhere to our new program. We hire data collectors to follow some pool guys and other service providers who can easily misreport income, then check whether everyone on the route reported their income. We need to make sure everybody is toeing the line (I will address the wealthy's contributions in another webcast).  We also hire people to try to get jobs under the table and fine those who offer them cash. We have companies try to pay people under the table and fine the employees who are trying to do that, but if they have a green card, then it is deportation. The new laws can and will be enforced! Give warnings, at first to citizens, but fines to companies. Big fines like 5k for the first business offence, and keep doubling for each employee, and when you come back to check on the company again, if they are still not complying, the fine would keep growing from the last doubling. Also, fine homeowners and service providers if they don’t comply after the short grace period.  

We need a solution that adds to the economy, adds to social security, Medicare, and tax revenue, while lowering insurance rates. We need solutions that stop and look at the issues and use research to find the root causes of the issues. Once we have done that, we can find proper solutions. Hasty, ill-conceived plans don’t work and can’t work because they are not directed at the issues. They are putting out a fire with gasoline. They generally cause more damage than doing good.  Let’s stop using sloppy, outdated, draconian plans and use logic and research-based plans for progress, instead of exacerbating existing issues.

This proposal will also help get rid of gangs/cartels, if someone is in a gang or a cartel member, If they are not registered, then if they are questioned about their source of income it might lead to more investigation and point authorities to a large source of crime. Immigration affects the GDP of the US, and we can spend billions to control immigration, and not very well, or we can bring in billions of dollars. Social security should be paid for by all and paid out to all of us who have contributed. We should all pay taxes, including immigrants. All of these will be less expensive if everyone is covered by it.

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